Research Roundup (Vol. 1)

Stephen Pettigrew. The downstream consequences of long waits: How lines at the precinct depress future turnout. Electoral Studies, Volume 71, 2021. 

Abstract: Researchers have increasingly paid attention to the impact that the administrative component of elections has on voter behavior. Existing research has focused almost exclusively on the effect that legal changes--such as voter identification laws--have on turnout. This paper extends our understanding of the electoral process by exploring how one aspect of the precinct experience--standing in line to vote--can shape the turnout behavior of voters in subsequent elections. I demonstrate that for every additional hour a voter waits in line to vote, their probability of voting in the subsequent election drops by 1 percentage point. To arrive at these estimates, I analyze vote history files using a combination of exact matching and placebo tests to test the identification assumptions. I then leverage an unusual institutional arrangement in the City of Boston and longitudinal data from Florida to show that the result also holds at the precinct level. The findings in this paper have important policy implications for administrative changes that may impact line length, such as voter identification requirements and precinct consolidation. They also suggest that racial asymmetries in precinct wait times contribute to the gap in turnout rates between white and non-white voters.

Previous research this builds on:

• Previous research has found that first-hand experiences deeply shape turnout, but we haven't seen specific work on the effects of line length.

Innovation this provides:

• Using aggregated and proxy precinct data, this paper shows that line length depresses future turnout and discourages in person voting.

Adam M. Dynes, Michael T. Hartney, and Sam D.  Hayes. Off-Cycle and Off Center: Election Timing and Representation in Municipal Government. American Political Science Review, 115(3), 1097-1103.  

Abstract: Who governs America’s cities: organized interests or mass publics? Though recent scholarship finds that local governments enact policies that align with citizens’ preferences, others argue that it is organized interests, not mass publics that are influential. To reconcile these perspectives, we show that election timing can help shed light on when voters or groups will be pivotal in city politics. Examining 1,600 large US cities, we find that off-cycle elections affect city policy responsiveness asymmetrically, weakening responsiveness on those issues where there is an active and organized interest whose policy objectives deviate from the preferences of the median resident. Here, we focus on public employees’ interests and find that local governments that are elected off cycle spend more on city workers than would be preferred by citizens in more conservative cities. We conclude by discussing the implications of these findings for the study of interest groups and representation in local politics.

Previous research this builds on:

• Off-cycle elections advantage organized groups.

Innovation this provides:

• This paper shows that this affects policy-making itself, in addition to who wins.

Burcu Kolcak and Katherine T. McCabe. Federalism at a partisan’s convenience: public opinion on federal intervention in 2020 election policy. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 31:sup1, 167-179. 

Abstract: President Trump’s rhetoric casting doubt on the integrity of mail-in voting ignited debates about whether the federal government should be allowed to intervene in states’ policy decisions regarding how elections are conducted. This study examines public opinion on rhetorical threats by the Trump Administration to block the expansion of states’ vote-by-mail policies and potentially delay the November 2020 election. In an online survey experiment, respondents were randomly assigned to receive information regarding the traditional role of states in administering U.S. federal elections and more or less salient partisan cues. Even though the information treatment was successful in informing respondents about intergovernmental control and reducing partisan gaps in knowledge, it had only a modest impact on attitudes. Preferences about which level of government should be in charge are malleable, subject to partisan and context-specific considerations.

Previous research this builds on:

• Voters tend to go with party advantage.

Innovation this provides:

• This paper uses a survey experiment to test whether this is also true regarding Trump's post-election rhetoric. It does.

Abigail L. Heller. Public support for electoral reform: The role of electoral system experience. Electoral Studies, Volume 72, 2021. 

Abstract: What affects public support for electoral reform? How does experience with different electoral systems affect people's willingness to support electoral reform? Given the salience of changes to election rules even when they are passed via the legislature and the increasing use of referenda as alternative mechanisms for change, these questions are critical to understanding when electoral reform will occur. I argue that experience (specifically, with an electoral system similar to that under consideration) affects public opinion by reducing uncertainty about the likely effects of reform and thus affects support for reform (although the direction of the effect depends on partisan bias). Moreover, I argue that experience is most important in the absence of strong party cues. I leverage subnational electoral system variation in the United Kingdom and find that experience does affect support for reform — negative experiences decrease support for reform. The results have implications for the possibility of electoral reform in the UK and beyond.

Previous research this builds on:

• Status-quo bias and elite messaging is what matters.

Innovation this provides:

• Scotland and London have both used mixed member proportional (MMP) electoral systems. This paper predicts support for referenda on single-member districts based on positive feelings expressed on MMP in previous surveys.

Jack Edelson, Alexander Alduncin, Christopher Krewson, James A. Sieja, and  Joseph E. Uscinski. The Effect of Conspiratorial Thinking and Motivated Reasoning on Belief in Election Fraud. Political Research Quarterly, 70(4), 933-946. 

Abstract: Belief in electoral fraud has received heightened attention due to elite rhetoric and controversial voter identification (ID) laws. Using a two-wave national survey administered before and after the 2012 election, we examine the individual-level correlates of belief in a range of election-related conspiracy theories. Our data show that partisanship affects the timing and content of belief in election-related conspiracy theories, but a general disposition toward conspiratorial thinking strongly influences those beliefs. Support for voter ID laws, in contrast, appears to be driven largely by party identification through elite-mass linkages. Our analysis suggests that belief in election fraud is a common and predictable consequence of both underlying conspiratorial thinking and motivated partisan reasoning.

Previous research this builds on:

• Feelings of fraud post-election normally dissipate and are confined to losers.

Innovation this provides:

• Using the CCES, this paper shows that fraud attitudes seem relatively stable and are related to conspiratorial thinking.

Anna Baringer, Michael C. Herron, and Daniel A. Smith. Voting by Mail and Ballot Rejection: Lessons from Florida for Elections in the Age of the Coronavirus. Election Law Journal: Rules, Politics, and Policy, 19(3), 289-320. 

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic and its concomitant need for social distancing have increased the attractiveness of voting by mail. This form of voting is nonetheless not a panacea for election administration in the time of a public health crisis, as a widespread move to ballots cast by voting by mail risks exacerbating existing inequities in mail-in ballot rejection rates across voters and jurisdictions. This motivates our examination of the roughly 9.6 million and 8.2 million ballots cast in the 2016 and 2018 general elections in Florida, respectively, including over 2.6 million vote-by-mail (VBM) ballots cast in each. Using a selection model that analyzes all ballots cast and those VBM ballots not counted in Florida in these two elections, we find that younger voters, voters not registered with a major political party, and voters in need of assistance when voting are disproportionately likely to have their VBM ballots not count. We also find disproportionately high rejection rates of mail ballots cast by Hispanic voters, out-of-state voters, and military dependents in the 2018 general election. Lastly, we find significant variation in the rejection rates of VBM ballots cast across Florida's 67 counties in the 2018 election, suggesting a non-uniformity in the way local election officials verify these ballots. As interest in expanding mail voting swells as a consequence of the novel coronavirus, protecting the rights of all voters to participate in electoral politics requires a characterization of the correlates of VBM ballot rejection with an eye toward considering how disparities in ballot rejection rates might be rectified.

Previous research this builds on:

• Local election administrators are more likely to respond to some emails than others, depending on things like name.

Innovation this provides:

• This paper finds that formality of language and email domain have a marginal impact on response rates.
  Whether or not a response is received is largely idiosyncratic.

Thessalia Merivaki and Mara Suttmann-Lea. Designing Voter Education Across the States: State Responses to the Help America Vote Act. Election Law Journal: Rules, Politics, and Policy, published online 28 September, 2021.

Abstract: The Help America Vote Act (HAVA) incentivized states to invest in voter education and outreach by making federal funds available under the condition that states include a voter education section in their state implementation plans. Since the initial HAVA plans were submitted by all states in 2003, there is notable variation in whether states revised them, and how they evolved. In this article, we offer a descriptive examination of how states designed and revised their voter education plans, and to what extent they met HAVA's core provisions on voter education. We analyze all states' initial HAVA submissions, and track plan revisions between 2004 and 2013. Our findings are consistent with existing scholarly evidence that loosely defined mandates lead to variation in state compliance. States did not uniformly incorporate core HAVA voter education provisions in their initial plans and revisions, and there were differences in the inclusion of education materials for language minority and disabled voters, suggesting limits on compliance with existing federal laws. Variation in the details of states' initial plans and subsequent revisions are explained by whether a given state is covered by the Voting Rights Act as well as state electoral competition. Our findings have implications for understanding how states design voter education policies to ensure that voters have adequate information on how to navigate the election process.

Previous research this builds on:

• Local election administrators have broad discretion in how they operate.

Innovation this provides:

• This paper separates traditional media outreach, face-to-face outreach, and social media work on turnout, examining each outlet. The first two appear to affect voter registration totals.

Craig M. Burnett and Janine Parry. Direct Democracy, Educative Effects, and the (Mis)Measurement of Ballot Measure Awareness. Political Behavior, Volume 42, 1015–1034.

Abstract: A century ago, Progressive reformers in the U.S. introduced the institutional innovations of direct democracy, claiming these reforms would cultivate better citizens. Two decades of high-profile research have supported and challenged the relationship between direct democracy, increased attention to politics, and a higher turnout rate. We propose, however, that a necessary condition of the “educative effects” model is voter familiarity with initiatives and referendums. While some research has examined ballot measure awareness, we suspect that that the standard measurements—e.g., “Have you heard of Proposition X?”—overestimate actual knowledge. Specifically, we measure ballot measure knowledge in a manner requiring voters to demonstrate familiarity with specific measures rather than merely asserting broad familiarity. Our approach reveals that the public’s awareness of statewide ballot measures, both in the abstract and with respect to particular measures, is far lower than past research suggests. Importantly, it also reveals that people with high levels of education, political interest, and knowledge of national politics are the most likely to misrepresent their ballot measure awareness.

Previous research this builds on:

• Implies endorsement by unpopular figures can negatively affect ballot measures.

Innovation this provides:

• Directly testing this, the paper suggests it does not. Cynicism may have more to do with political practices than institutions (cf. Hibbing and Theis-Morse, 1995).

Maurice Dunaiski. Is compulsory voting habit-forming? Regression discontinuity evidence from Brazil. Electoral Studies, Volume 71, 2021.

Abstract: Voting in one election increases one's propensity to vote in the future. It remains unclear, however, whether this pattern holds when voting is compulsory – as is the case in a quarter of all democracies. Is compulsory voting habit-forming? I address this question using a regression discontinuity design and administrative turnout data from Brazil, where voting is voluntary at age 16 and compulsory at age 18. I find no evidence that compulsory voting instils voting habits. Instead, the evidence points to a first-time compulsory voting boost, which gradually dissipates as voters grow older. I show that targeted mobilisation of first-time compulsory voters is a plausible mechanism behind the turnout boost. Alternative explanations find less support in the data. The results clarify the scope conditions of prior research on voting habits, and have important implications for the debate over the second-order effects of compulsory voting.

Innovation this provides:

• While this also lies outside our focue on US election management, we found this relevant and interesting. Brazil has compulsory voting for only its youngest voters. While turnout is initially very high, this paper shows it then decreases over time.

Jon Green, David Lazer, Stefan McCabe, and Will Hobbs. Despair or Defiance? Assessing Turnout Effects of Election Misinformation. Available online, published September 14, 2021.

Abstract: Following  the  2020  general  election,  Republican  elected  officials,  including  then-President Donald Trump, promoted conspiracy theories claiming that Joe Biden's close victory  in  Georgia  was  fraudulent.   Extant  literature  suggests  multiple  hypotheses regarding the effects these conspiracy theories could have had on Republican turnout in the Senate runoff elections that took place the following January.  Conspiracies regarding rigged elections could signal that voting doesn't matter, lowering adherents' external efficacy  and  decreasing  their  likelihood  of  voting  relative  to  otherwise  similar  non-adherents.  Conspiracy theories could also stoke political anger at out-partisans, which would predict heightened commitment to voting as a means to address the threat posed by political opponents' supposed election theft.  We test these hypotheses by combining behavioral measures of engagement with election conspiracies and administrative data on voter turnout at the individual level by linking the accounts of 40,000 Twitter users in Georgia to the voter file.  We find limited turnout effects - liking or sharing retweets opposed to conspiracy theories was associated with higher turnout in the runoff election
and, among more active users, those who liked or shared tweets promoting fraud-related conspiracy theories were less likely to vote.

This is a draft working paper.  This research has not yet been peer reviewed.

Previous research this builds on:

• Multiple conflicting theories.

Innovation this provides:

• The research linked Twitter accounts to the Georgia voter file, with one significant finding: opposing conspiracies is linked with higher turnout.

Matt Lamb. The “costs” of voting: The effects of vote-by-mail on election administration finance in Colorado. Social Science Quarterly, 2021; 1-19.

Abstract:

Objective: In this article,I ask whether the adoption of vote-by-mail (VBM) has resulted in the promised cost reductions. Additionally, I examine the overall determinants of election administration expenditures after the implementation of VBM.

Methods: Using Colorado as a case study, I use county level expenditures to determine the effects of institutional change on election administration finance, as well as other institutional and socio-demographic determinants on costs.

Results: I find that adopting all-VBM elections significantly reduced expenditures. Additionally, I find that after VBM was implemented, the primary institutional determinants of expenditures are the proportion of mail-in ballots received, as well as the number of poll-workers, and early voting sites. Finally, I find that socio-demographic characteristics are predictive of expenditures for election administration. Counties with higher income spent less per voter in federal elections. Counties with higher proportions of Latinx voting-aged populations spent less per voter, even when controlling for turnout.

Conclusion: The results strongly indicate that moving to all-VBM elections can help cash-strapped counties save money. However, conversion to VBM may not guarantee that expenditures will be spent equitably.

Previous research this builds on:

• VBM is largely cheaper to run.

Innovation this provides:

• Bringing together county level CO expenditures, this paper finds that VBM is cheaper. However, expenditures may still favor richer counties.