Changing the Way People Vote?
An Examination of the Voter Choice Act and Vote Center Implementation in California
The MIT Election Data and Science Lab helps highlight new research and interesting ideas in election science, and is a proud co-sponsor of the Election Sciences, Reform, & Administration Conference (ESRA).
Lisa Bryant recently presented a paper at the 2019 ESRA conference entitled, “Changing the Way People Vote? An Examination of the Voter Choice Act and Vote Center Implementation in California.” Here, she summarizes her analysis from that paper.
In 2016, California passed the California Voter’s Choice Act (VCA) to make voting more convenient, accessible, and modern, beginning in the 2018 elections. Five California counties (Madera, Napa, Nevada, Sacramento, and San Mateo) opted to adopt the Voter’s Choice Act for the 2018 primary and general elections. The new policy simultaneously implemented many election reforms that had proven successful in other states such as vote centers and same day (conditional) voter registration (CVR).
There are two significant changes created by the new voting model that may influence the way voters cast their ballot. First, all registered voters in VCA counties automatically receive a vote by mail (VBM) ballot and they can return it in one of three ways: mail the ballot, drop it in one of several designated, secured ballot drop boxes located throughout the county, or return it in person to a vote center during open hours. Second, under the VCA, the precinct model of in-person voting is replaced by vote centers, where voters can vote at any location in the county. The VCA also requires that several vote centers will be open for voting for four days prior to Election Day and a smaller number will be open for ten days prior to Election Day. This paper examines the effects of the adoption of the Voter Choice Act in 2018 in terms of turnout and voting methods.
To assess whether or not turnout had any effects on voter turnout or vote method, analysis was done using the California voter registration file with complete voter history. The voter file was acquired from the California Secretary of State in January 2019 after all counting was complete and the Statement of the Vote had been certified.
Looking at turnout among all registered voters shows that turnout was higher in VCA counties than in non-VCA counties in both the primary and general elections. On average, VCA counties saw a turnout rate of 41.8% in the 2018 primary election compared to 34.9% in non-VCA counties. VCA counties also saw higher turnout in the general election, 69.8% compared to 62.5%. These differences were statistically significant.
When given multiple convenience options, such as vote by mail and vote centers with early voting hours, voters overwhelmingly choose to vote by mail. California is a permanent vote by mail state, so the number of citizens who voted by mail was already fairly high. Even so, the differences between VCA counties and other counties were quite dramatic in 2018, with around 90% of voters choosing to vote by mail in VCA counties in both the primary and general elections compared to 68.1% and 65.7% in the primary and general, respectively, in non-VCA counties.
Results also suggest that when voters change their behavior in a reform environment, the majority move from in-person voting to vote by mail rather than vice versa. Looking only at voters who voted in both the 2016 and 2018 general elections, the majority cast their ballot in the same way (either in person for both elections or by mail for both), but the amount of change was greater in VCA counties. Only 13.6 percent of voters made any change to the way they voted in non-VCA counties, while 26.1 percent of voters in VCA counties changed the way they voted, almost all of whom moved from in-person voting to vote by mail. This difference was statistically significant (t=441.4, p<.001).
This study was a preliminary look at how the VCA impacted voters in the 2018 elections, and overall the results suggest that in most of the counties that adopted the VCA, there were significant gains in voters choosing to vote by mail. Eight additional counties will implement the Voter’s Choice Act in 2020, including Los Angeles County, which has the highest number of registered voters in the state, if vote by mail rates hold in all counties, the state may have to reconsider just how many vote centers are needed under the plan.
