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North Carolina: What’s Happening with Early Voting?

A State Spotlight from the Stanford-MIT Healthy Election Project

Our story today comes from a November 2, 2020 report from John Curiel, as part of the MIT Election Lab’s work with the Stanford-MIT Healthy Election Project.


 

Highlights

  • MIT and Stanford researchers take a deep dive into North Carolina’s early voting data (updated daily) to understand the trends in requests, returns, demographics, and party breakdown.
  • As of November 2, roughly 3.6 million North Carolina voters had already cast their ballots early in person — this number is more than three-quarters the total voter turnout from the 2016 General Election.
  • On the weekend before election day alone, 158,810 North Carolinians voted.
  • The rates of early voting by race have been roughly equal to their proportions of registered voters.
  • Across party lines, voters with “no party affiliation” are voting early roughly neck-and-neck with registered Democrats and Republicans; the party breakdown of early voters clocks in at roughly one-third Democratic, one-third Republican, and one-third voters with no party affiliation.

With the election a few days away, researchers from the Stanford-MIT Healthy Elections Project analyzed the early voting trends across the State of North Carolina, a heated battleground for candidates.

As of this past week, roughly 3.6 million North Carolina voters had already cast their ballots early in person — this number is more than three-quarters the total voter turnout from the 2016 General Election. Early voting turnout numbers peaked in the beginning of the early voting period and have gradually declined leading up to the election.

Breakdown by Race

The distribution of early voters by race has remained relatively equal to each race’s proportion of registered voters. Overall, White voters comprise the largest percentage of early votes cast at roughly 66%, with 21% from Black voters, and 13% from voters of other races.

By the numbers, early voting turnout clocks in at:

  • White: 1,843,139 (65%)
  • Black: 599,706 (21%)
  • Other races: 369,357 (14%)

During the weekend before election day, voters turned out at:

  • White: 88,488 (56%)
  • Black: 36,563 (23%)
  • Other races: 33,759 (21%)

Breakdown by Party

The distribution of early voters by party has remained neck-in-neck, with roughly one-third of early votes coming from Democrats, one-third from Republicans, and one-third from those with no party affiliation.

By the numbers, early voting turnout clocks in by party at:

  • Democrats: 1,275,919 (35%)
  • Republicans: 1,252,632 (35%)
  • No party affiliation: 1,084,517 (30%)

On the weekend before Election Day, voters turned out at:

  • Democrats: 52,501 (33%)
  • Republicans: 51,920 (33%)
  • No party affiliation: 54,388 (34%)

For a visual breakdown of the data and analysis, visit the full report here.

John A. Curiel was previously a research scientist at the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, and is currently an assistant professor of political science at Ohio Northern University.

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